The Auction Count Fell. The Pipeline Didn't. | The Hard Money Edge, Issue 020

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The Hard Money Edge · Issue 020 · Week of November 9, 2026 By Chris Anderson, Founder & CEO, Boston Trust Corp

First Position

By Chris Anderson

“I always say that while we can’t know where we’re going, we ought to know where we are (in cyclical terms).” Howard Marks, “It’s All Good,” Oaktree memo, July 16, 2007

The active auction count fell 23, from 295 to 272. That is not a cure. Most of that drop is dates rolling off the calendar, not 23 new cancellations.

This week still has 63 foreclosure sales on the Massachusetts calendar, and the Warren pre-foreclosure feed just put 228 new filings into the pipe — 126 first notices and 102 court petitions. Know where we are: the block is still busy, and more paper is still coming.

Rates gave a little more back. The 10-year closed Friday at 4.86%, down eight basis points on the week. The 30-year mortgage is 7.18%, its third straight weekly drop. A year ago it was 6.22%. But the Fed meets Dec 8–9, and after a strong October jobs report, Raymond James expects a quarter-point hike. Relief on the long end is not a promise on the short end.

Banks are backing up, too. In the Fed's October survey, a net 15.5% of banks tightened standards on construction and land loans. In July, they were easing.

My advice. If your loan matures in the next 12 months, have your refinance or sale plan done before the December meeting, not after. If you're bidding, line up financing, title and carrying costs before you raise your hand. And underwrite today's rate and today's comps, not last year's.

We lend our own money, in first position, in Massachusetts only, and we hold every loan we make. We don't broker the money. We are the money.

By the Numbers

As of Friday close, Nov 6, 2026 (SOFR as of Nov 5)

Full figures

Measure	This week	Prior
Fed funds target	3.75%–4.00%	3.75%–4.00% (next FOMC Dec 8–9)
30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac, Nov 5)	7.18%	7.24%
10-yr Treasury (Nov 6)	4.86%	4.94%
5-yr Treasury (Nov 6)	4.64%	4.71%
SOFR (Nov 5)	3.92%	3.95% (Oct 30)
Take-out rate (5-yr + 275 bp)	7.39%	7.46%
Banks tightening construction & land loans (net)	15.5%	−3.7% (July, net easing)
MLS PIN listings, New + Active (Nov 9)	15,298	Baseline (first week tracked)
MA single-family sales, October	3,292	−12.8% YoY
MA single-family average price, October	$849,651	+0.7% YoY
MA single-family active listings, October	8,350	+33.4% YoY
Pre-foreclosure auction notices (filed Oct 21–28)	126	133
Petitions to foreclose	102	88
MA foreclosure auctions, Nov 9–15	63 (12 postponed, 14 cancelled)	67
Active foreclosure auctions	272	295

Cost of Capital

The long end eased again. The Fed's next move may still be up.

The FOMC held at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct 28, with two votes for a hike. The next meeting is Dec 8–9, with new projections. Fed officials have a full speaking week before then, starting with Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman in Boston on Monday and Governor Christopher Waller on the outlook Tuesday. SOFR eased to 3.92%. The 10-year fell to 4.86%, the 5-year to 4.64% and the 2-year to 4.51%. The 15-year mortgage averaged 6.57%.

Banks tightened on every kind of commercial real estate loan. The Fed's October Senior Loan Officer survey shows net tightening of 15.5% for construction and land loans and 8.8% for multifamily, after net easing in July. Demand fell in every category. Banks also tightened lending to nonbank lenders, including mortgage and business credit intermediaries.

Private money is filling the gap. Starwood Capital and Trez Capital formed a land-loan partnership on Nov 3, seeded with $450 million of loans and targeting more than $1 billion a year in residential land and development lending. TPG Real Estate raised about $5 billion and ACORE closed a $1.1 billion opportunistic credit fund, aiming at owners who can't refinance. Trepp counts close to $800 billion of U.S. commercial property loans due by year-end.

UNDERWRITING NOTE: 5-yr at 4.64% + 275 bp = 7.39% take-out, down from 7.46%. Size the refi at 7.39%. Stress it at 8%. A December hike would hit SOFR-priced bank lines first.

Pre-Foreclosure

This week's count: 228 Massachusetts filings dated Oct 21–28: 126 first auction notices and 102 petitions to foreclose. Last week's file had 133 notices and 88 petitions, 221 in all.

Petitions are the first step, so the jump to 102 from 88 is the pipeline filling. A first notice is not a live sale. Many get postponed or cancelled, so we don't count notices as active auctions.

Where. Greater Boston (Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk): 27 notices and 30 petitions, 57 filings. Worcester leads the state with 37.

County	Notices	Petitions	Total
Worcester	21	16	37
Hampden	20	14	34
Bristol	17	13	30
Middlesex	12	15	27
Essex	13	14	27
Plymouth	12	9	21
Suffolk	9	10	19
Norfolk	6	5	11
Barnstable	7	2	9
Berkshire	5	1	6
Franklin	3	0	3
Hampshire	1	2	3
Nantucket	0	1	1
Greater Boston	27	30	57
Statewide	126	102	228

Foreclosure Desk

Auction Block

For Nov 9–15, the Boston Trust Auction Tracker counts 63 foreclosure sales on the calendar statewide, against 67 last week, with 12 postponed and 14 cancelled. 272 sales are active from Nov 9 on, down 23 from 295. Last week's count included 67 sales dated Nov 2–8 that have since passed, so most of that drop is dates rolling off the calendar, not new cancellations. Greater Boston has 20 this week: Middlesex 9, Norfolk 6, Suffolk 5. Condo lien sales are counted separately: none this week, 5 active. Treat every count as a minimum. Massachusetts foreclosure auctions are held on site at the property.

County	This week	Active	Postponed / cancelled	Change in active vs last week
Barnstable	2	8	0 / 0	−2
Berkshire	0	3	0 / 0	0
Bristol	11	37	1 / 3	−2
Dukes	1	3	0 / 0	0
Essex	3	29	2 / 1	0
Franklin	1	8	0 / 0	+2
Hampden	7	30	1 / 1	−1
Hampshire	2	5	0 / 0	−1
Middlesex	9	37	2 / 1	−1
Nantucket	1	1	0 / 0	−1
Norfolk	6	30	2 / 0	0
Plymouth	6	22	0 / 3	−2
Suffolk	5	22	2 / 4	−7
Worcester	9	37	2 / 1	−8
Greater Boston	20	89	6 / 5	−8
Statewide	63	272	12 / 14	−23

Housing Market

MLS PIN shows about 15,298 homes for sale statewide this morning: single-family, condo and multi-family, new and active. It's a rough gauge of how much is on the market, not a perfect stat. This is our baseline; we'll track it week over week from here.

October single-family closings fell to 3,292, down 12.8% from a year ago, according to a Bluefin Property Buyers read of MLS PIN data. The average sale price held at $849,651, up 0.7%. Active single-family listings were 8,350, up 33.4%, and months of supply rose to 2.19. Volume is falling first. Prices haven't moved yet.

Development

Revere's housing authority filed for a 39-acre Chapter 40R smart growth district that would allow a 1,700-unit redevelopment: 790 public housing units replacing 431, plus 910 market-rate units, built in phases over 5 to 25 years.

What It Costs to Build

Federal producer prices next to Home Depot shelf prices. The September PPI is still the latest; October's is due Nov 13. Our 14-item basket at Home Depot South Bay/Boston (store #2679) went from $1,748.69 to $1,746.04, down $2.65 (−0.15%). Joint compound was the only mover, $26.50 to $23.85 (−10%). The other 13 were flat.

Material	PPI YoY	PPI MoM	Home Depot item	Shelf price, Nov 7	vs Nov 1
Hardwood lumber	+1.3%	−0.5%	Lifeproof LVP, 20.1 sq ft case	$59.97	New item
Softwood lumber	+14.2%	−2.0%	2x4x8 stud · 15/32 plywood	$4.25 · $29.71	Flat
Electrical (copper wire)	+30.8%	+0.8%	Romex 12/2, 250 ft	$182.00	Flat
Plumbing (fixtures / pipe)	+5.8% / +3.7%	0.0% / −0.4%	Toilet · vanity · PEX-B 100 ft	$129 · $199 · $33.30	Flat
HVAC equipment	+5.7%	−0.1%	40-gal gas water heater (out of stock)	$609.00	Flat
Roofing	+2.7%	−2.0%	GAF Timberline HDZ bundle	$47.97	Flat
Siding	+2.7%	−2.0%	Ply Gem vinyl siding carton	$209.00	Flat
Windows (wood / metal)	+4.3% / +11.3%	0.0%	JELD-WEN 36x60 vinyl window	$270.17	New baseline
Paint	+5.0%	−0.2%	Behr Premium Plus, gallon	$37.98	New baseline
Drywall & finishing	+1.4%	+0.8%	1/2 in. drywall · joint compound 4.5 gal	$16.28 · $23.85	Flat · −10.0%

PPI: September 2026. Roofing and siding share one federal series. The OSB sheet was out of stock. Paint and the window are new exact-item baselines (last week's were "from" prices), so they're not in the basket change. Also tracked, flat: concrete $6.47, R-13 insulation $97.21, 36 in. sink base $159. New this week: Liquid Nails $3.48.

Zoning, Ballot and Regulation

Question 7 failed. Voters rejected the starter-homes lot-size measure 50.6% to 49.4%. It would have allowed a single-family home on any residentially zoned lot of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of frontage and public water and sewer. Support was strongest in Greater Boston; most of southeastern, central and western Massachusetts voted no. Lot minimums stay local.
Rent control was not on the ballot. The SJC removed it in June. The statewide ban stands.
New AG rule. Massachusetts' shared-appreciation mortgage regulation, 940 CMR 39.00, took effect Nov 6, with new borrower disclosures, repayment scenarios and annual statements. If you offer or sign an equity-share loan, read it first.

What It Means for Investors and Borrowers

Maturing in the next 12 months? Plan the exit before Dec 8–9. A hike would raise short rates and bank line costs.
Banks are tightening on construction. Line up a second source before your bank's term sheet changes.
Auction bidders: financing first, then bid. The deposit is small; the balance is due fast.
Size take-outs at 7.39% and stress at 8%.
Rehabbers: shelf prices were flat this week, but federal prices for copper wire and softwood are still up double digits on the year. Re-bid electrical.

Number of the Week

228. New Massachusetts pre-foreclosure filings in one week, dated Oct 21–28: 126 first auction notices and 102 petitions to foreclose. Last week's file: 221.

Before You Bid

Read the notice. Pull the chain of assignments. Walk the building. Know your all-in before you raise your hand.

Loans from $100K to $10M: Boston Trust lends on Massachusetts bridge, fix-and-flip and construction loans, typically at 70–75% LTV. I've been lending since 1998. Boston Trust was named Silver in B&T's Best of 2026 (Private and Alternative/Hard Money Lending). Call us for a same-day term sheet. 617.752.7000 · www.bostontrustcorp.com · 100 Hallet Street, Dorchester, MA 02124

Work With Boston Trust

Boston Trust Corp is a Massachusetts private lender. We lend our own money, in first position, and hold every loan we make. Loans from $100K to $10M. If you're bidding this week or have a loan maturing before rates move again, call us for a same-day term sheet on a bridge loan, fix-and-flip loan or hard money loan. Past issues: The Hard Money Edge.

Call 617.752.7000 or visit bostontrustcorp.com. 100 Hallet Street, Dorchester, MA 02124.