The Hard Money Edge Issue 019: The 2021 Loans Are Hitting the Auction Block, week of November 2, 2026

The 2021 Loans Are Hitting the Auction Block | The Hard Money Edge, Issue 019

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The Hard Money Edge · Week of November 2, 2026 · Issue 019

We do not broker. We do not sell. We are the money.

First Position

By Chris Anderson

"The fundamental principle of auto racing is that to finish first, you must first finish. ... any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 2010 shareholder letter

The foreclosures this week are not old 2008 paper. They are loans made when money was cheap.

This week's Warren Group list has 133 new auction notices. Fifty-six of them, 42%, are on mortgages from 2021 or later. Last week that share was 34%.

Thirty-one of this week's notices are on 2021 and 2022 loans alone, the years of the lowest rates and the highest bids. Petitions to foreclose, the first step, jumped to 88 from 57 a week ago.

The auction block is just as busy. Our county count shows 67 foreclosure sales on the calendar for Nov 2–8, against 66 last week, with 11 postponed and 11 cancelled. 295 sales are active statewide, down 14 from 309. Every one of them is held on site at the property.

Rates gave a little back this week, but not enough to save a stretched deal. The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday. Two members voted to hike.

The 10-year closed Friday at 4.94%. The 30-year mortgage is 7.24%. A year ago it was 6.17%.

Oil settled at $104.12. Steel is up 27.6% and copper wire 30.8% on the year.

Here is what I see. A 2021 buyer at 80% loan-to-value was fine while values rose. Then the rate reset, the rehab ran over, or the buyer pool shrank. One bad number, multiplied through the whole capital stack, is the zero Buffett is talking about.

My advice. If you bought in 2021 or 2022 with a loan that matures or resets in the next 12 months, call your lender now, not in month 11.

If you're bidding at auction, line up your financing and your title review before you raise your hand.

And if you're buying from a stressed seller before the sale, underwrite today's rate and today's comps, not what the seller paid.

We lend our own money, in first position, in Massachusetts only, and we hold every loan we make. We don't broker the money. We are the money.

By The Numbers

Cost of Capital

The Fed held, but two members wanted a hike. The long end eased.

The FOMC kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% and said inflation "remains elevated." Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented for a quarter-point hike.

SOFR ticked up to 3.95%. The 10-year fell six basis points on the week to 4.94%.

Banks are shrinking construction books. Bank OZK, the country's most active construction lender before it pulled back, took in $9.2B in repayments and made $5.2B in new loans over 12 months.

Banks still describe construction standards as at the tighter end of their range since 2005. The October survey is due Monday, Nov 2; the July survey is still the latest.

Underwriting note: 5-yr at 4.71% + 275 bp = 7.46% take-out, down from 7.57%. Size the refi at 7.46%. Stress it at 8%. Two Fed dissents for a hike say the next move may not be down.

Pre-Foreclosure

This week's count: 133 new auction notices and 88 petitions to foreclose, 221 filings in all. Last week: 134 notices and 57 petitions.

Vintage: the median original mortgage year on the notices is 2018. 36 notices are on loans from 2008 or earlier, 41 from 2009–2020, and 56 (42%) from 2021 or later.

Pre-Foreclosure Snapshot: Massachusetts auction notices and petitions by county, week of Oct 29, 2026

Greater Boston (Suffolk, Middlesex, Norfolk): 41 notices and 28 petitions. Boston itself has 18 of Suffolk's 20 filings. Springfield has 12.

Who's foreclosing: U.S. Bank 21 filings · Freedom Mortgage 15 · Rocket Mortgage 15 · PennyMac 10 · Citizens 9 · Wells Fargo 9 · BNY Mellon 7. These are mostly servicers and trustees for agency and securitized loans.

Foreclosure Desk: Auction Block

For Nov 2–8, the Boston Trust Auction Tracker counts 67 foreclosure sales on the calendar statewide (on time, or postponed to a date this week), with 11 postponed and 11 cancelled. 295 sales are active from Nov 2 on, down 14 from 309 last week. Greater Boston has 21 this week: Suffolk 8, Norfolk 7, Middlesex 6. Condo lien sales are counted separately: none this week, 7 active.

Our own sweep of 13 auctioneer websites, mortgage foreclosures only, shows 60 sales on time this week, 4 postponed and 11 cancelled. One more was held Nov 2 and sold back to the lender. Massachusetts foreclosure auctions are held on site at the property.

Auction Block Nov 2-8: Massachusetts foreclosure auctions by county

Development

Boston's Planning Department board approved 192 homes in five projects on Oct 15, including 145 units at 201–207 Brighton Ave and 23 in Fields Corner.

It also approved tax relief for four stalled projects totaling more than 1,400 units. Developers must start within 12 to 15 months.

Statewide, permits covered 1,515 housing units in September, up from 1,207 in August.

What It Costs to Build

Federal producer prices. Steel mill products are up 27.6%; AGC ties it to tariffs of up to 50%. ENR's October cost index is up 4.6%, materials 9.5%.

Fix-and-Flip Shelf Prices

Flipper Materials Index baseline: Home Depot South Bay/Boston, Nov 1, 2026. Water heater out of stock; insulation unavailable at South Bay; window ships to store.

Zoning and Permitting

• MBTA Communities: The SJC rejected Marshfield's challenge in September. The state's official list shows 159 communities compliant as of Oct 26. Marblehead was found compliant Oct 26 with a 900-unit district.

• Boston: Squares + Streets zoning for Cleary Square in Hyde Park was approved Oct 15.

• ADUs: Cities and towns have reported 2,084 approved ADUs since the by-right law took effect, through June 2026.

• State House: The governor signed H.3909 on Oct 21 as Chapter 251 of the Acts of 2026. It lets Provincetown's year-round rental housing trust buy year-round occupancy restrictions.

What It Means for Investors and Borrowers

• 2021–22 borrowers: get ahead of your maturity. Refinance or sell on your timeline, not the lender's.

• Auction bidders: financing first, then bid. The balance is due in 30 days.

• Developers: re-bid metals. Steel and copper are up near 30%. Lumber is the only line easing.

• Size take-outs at 7.46% and stress at 8%.

Number of the Week

42%. Share of this week's Massachusetts foreclosure auction notices on mortgages from 2021 or later, 56 of 133. Last week: 34%.

Before You Bid

Read the notice. Pull the chain of assignments. Walk the building. Know your all-in before you raise your hand.

Loans from $100K to $10M: Boston Trust lends on Massachusetts bridge, fix-and-flip and construction loans, typically at 70–75% LTV. I've been lending since 1998. Boston Trust was named Silver in B&T's Best of 2026 (Private and Alternative/Hard Money Lending).

Call us for a same-day term sheet. 617.752.7000 · https://www.bostontrustcorp.com · 100 Hallet Street, Dorchester, MA 02124